Reassessing India’s Economic Landscape: The Challenge of Manufacturing Employment Post-2015
In a thought-provoking new book, the author delves into the intricate dynamics of India’s economic growth, scrutinizing the alarming dip in manufacturing employment since 2015. For decades, India’s manufacturing sector had stabilized at approximately 17% of the nation’s GDP following the economic reforms initiated in 1991. However, a series of government policies have exacerbated the situation, leading to substantial job losses in crucial labor-intensive industries such as textiles, wood products, food processing, and leather.
Despite these challenges, certain sectors managed to navigate the turbulent waters. By 2018, many labor-intensive industries were still struggling, and the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic further impeded recovery efforts, with the exception of the apparel sector and food processing, which demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity. The gross value added (GVA) from manufacturing took a consistent downturn starting in 2016, only beginning to rebound around 2022, yet it still falls short of reaching pre-demonetisation figures by the year 2024.
Interestingly, while the overall contribution of manufacturing to employment has declined, the absolute number of manufacturing jobs saw an uptick by 2023, finally surpassing the levels witnessed in 2012. This resurgence, however, has been largely driven by the apparel industry, which capitalized on shifting consumer preferences towards casual wear and the government’s performance-linked incentive scheme. Furthermore, the sector’s adeptness at integrating digital marketing and e-commerce strategies has significantly bolstered its recovery trajectory.
Meanwhile, other labor-intensive sectors have continued to face challenges. Industries such as furniture, jewelry, musical instruments, and sports goods saw only modest job growth, which only materialized post-2020–2021. This slight increase in total manufacturing employment has brought the figure to approximately 64.8 million, symbolizing a fragile recovery amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. The book serves as a clarion call for policymakers to reassess strategies that can potentially revitalize the manufacturing sector, suggesting that a renewed focus on sustainable growth and employment generation is essential for India’s economic future.