WMO Warns of Intensifying El Niño, with Peak Expected in December 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that the ongoing El Niño event will continue to strengthen ahead of its expected peak in December 2026. According to the organization's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the phenomenon could bring above-average temperatures to many parts of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in some regions.

The WMO update indicates that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach exceptionally high levels during October–December 2026. These conditions are expected to influence weather patterns, with potential consequences for economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.

In its statement, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño was firmly established and strengthening rapidly. The organization's forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027.

If the projected intensity materialises, the event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes observed since at least 1950. However, the extent of its impacts will vary by region, and seasonal forecasts do not mean that every area will experience the same weather conditions.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence atmospheric circulation and shift rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.

The WMO's outlook highlights the importance of monitoring seasonal forecasts and preparing for possible weather-related risks. Governments, communities and relevant agencies can use updated forecasts to support planning for agriculture, water resources, disaster preparedness and public safety.

Regional impacts will depend on local climate conditions and how the event develops over the coming months. Authorities and communities are therefore advised to follow updates from their national meteorological services.